But recently, some of the graphs have brought hope. Look at the national data for today, May 15: the curve has been flattened, and some of the numbers are headed downward.
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| Graphs from the nytimes.com |
What a relief it must be, especially for those who live in New York City and New Jersey, some of the hardest-hit areas, for the number of cases and deaths to finally be declining. In fact in those eastern states, the declines are more dramatic. New York City went from over 10,000 new cases per day at its peak to fewer than 3000 per day in the last week, and from over 1000 deaths per day for about a week in early April to fewer than 500 per day in the last week.
But here's the thing: most of the national decline is due to declines in cases in the hard-hit eastern seaboard. Elsewhere, numbers of cases and deaths are not yet on the decline. Here, for example, are the graphs for Iowa.
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| Graphs from nytimes.com |
After seeing that national graph, I got quite dismayed when I saw these for Iowa!
The Times had Iowa in the category of states where "new cases are decreasing," which I don't quite get. The graph definitely showed a peak in new cases a week ago, and then a decline, but they're going up again. Sadly, the number of deaths per day continues to rise.
So my feelings are mixed: on the one hand, maybe things are finally easing! Maybe we're getting a handle on this disease, maybe we're doing social-distancing well enough to slow it down. On the other hand, why aren't the Iowa graphs looking more similar to the national ones, i.e. with a line going DOWN?
During all this, and despite the continued upward trajectory of those Iowa graphs, and despite White House guidelines that a state should have 14 days of declining new cases, Governor Reynolds made a proclamation to reopen the entire state. Earlier, she's opened all but 22 counties that had been particularly hard-hit (including our county). This week, the entire state is open for business.
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| Owners of a gym prepare for socially-distanced workouts. Photo swiped from thegazette.com |
There are some restrictions: no gatherings larger than 10 people. Restaurants, stores, and barbershops/salons must operate at 50% of capacity to make sure diners are spaced far enough apart for social distancing, for example.
OK, fine, but I am not ready to visit a restaurant, that's for sure, at least to sit down for a good amount of time, breathing in who knows what. The document you might have seen on social media by epidemiologist and professor Erin Bromage reminded us that the TIME we spend in contact with infected people matters, so restaurant meals are not a good idea yet. We'll keep doing take-out. And I cannot imagine going out to stores just to browse around for the same reason. Not yet.
And what might it mean in the proclamation that Massage Therapy Establishments have to "make reasonable efforts to maintain social distance and increase hygiene practices" according to Governor Reynolds's proclamation? You can't maintain social distance if you're giving a massage! Two friends who are Licensed Massage Therapists, Zhen E and Karen, have already announced that they're going to wait a bit before opening.
I hope there aren't any negative ramifications of this maybe-too-early reopening. Coe wants to reopen in the fall for our fall semester, and a rebound of cases in Iowa might make that tricky. I am really hoping there won't be a rebound.
Meanwhile, this is what I'm going to do:
- keep social distancing
- get take-out instead from local restaurants
- only go to retail establishments if I can go in, quickly get what I need, and leave (masked, of course)
- urge people I know to keep social distancing
- make masks for people who don't yet have one (let me know!)
- show my support for leaders who urge a more cautious approach to reopening.
If the data from the nation as a whole are a good prediction, and if Iowa's peak of cases comes soonish, as the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation suggests, we will be able to open more safely very soon--and I'll be ready!
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